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Whisper numbers


Whisper numbers

Whisper numbers are unofficial earnings estimates for companies. Brokerage houses employ STOCK MARKET analysts who closely watch and make predictions about a narrow range of stocks they “cover.” Major brokerage houses will probably have analysts who cover just oil stocks, utility companies, retailers, etc. Market analysts regularly predict the quarterly earnings-per-share for the companies they follow. The industry analysts’ official estimates are then compared to yield a consensus estimate. During the DOT-COMS’ boom in 1999–2000, earnings estimates were a constant and rapidly changing concern for technology companies. Official analysts’ estimates often did not change as fast as market conditions. Thus unofficial market estimates, made either by industry analysts and distributed privately among clients and brokerage house personnel or by individual investors and distributed over INTERNET stock-market discussion groups, flourished. Day traders, individual stock-market investors who buy and sell stock in a matter of minutes or hours, often used whisper numbers as compared to official estimates in determining which stocks to invest in. At the time of the dot-com boom, whisper numbers were often a better estimate of companies’ earnings than official estimates, and stock prices advanced or declined based on whether the company’s earnings exceeded or fell short of whisper numbers rather than consensus estimates. As the dot-com market crashed and earnings disappointments replaced those exceeding estimates, and with introduction of the FAIR DISCLOSURE regulation (Reg FD) by the SECURITIES AND EXCHANGE COMMISSION (SEC) in 2000, the number of whisper numbers reported declined. Reg FD bars companies from selectively disclosing information. Previously, stock-market analysts often received advanced notice of news or privileged information from the companies they cover. For companies, relationships with analysts would generally lead to more positive recommendations, which in turn helped raise their company’s stock price. For analysts, advance notice allowed them to inform important customers about impending news. Since the introduction of Reg FD and with the decline of the dot-com industry, whisper numbers all but disappeared. One website, EarningsWhisper.com, tracks earnings projections from on-line message boards. The number of whisper estimates reported has dramatically declined, and in 2001 the website reported whisper numbers for technology stocks tended to be within a penny per share of consensus estimates.
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