Decision tree
A decision tree is a map of the reasoning process businesspeople use to make choices. Decision trees are excellent tools for making financial or number-based decisions where a lot of detailed data needs to be considered. They provide guidelines in which alternative decisions and the implications of choosing those decisions can be organized and reviewed. Decision trees help people form an accurate and more realistic picture of the risks and rewards associated with a particular choice. Creating a decision tree requires time. The first step is determining what decision needs to be made; a small square representing the decision is drawn on the left side of the paper. From this square lines are drawn toward the right for each possible solution, which are written on separate lines. The results of each solution are then considered. If the result is unknown, a circle is drawn; a different decision needs to be made, a square is drawn. When creating decision trees, squares represent decisions and circles represent unknown factors. The decision tree will thus expand until all possible outcomes and unknowns are included. When the tree is completed, it is necessary to review the diagram and challenge each square and circle to see if there are solutions or outcomes that have not been considered. At this point, a decision tree will provide a range of possible outcomes. The next step is to evaluate the tree and calculate the decision that has the greatest worth. Once the values of expected outcomes have been established and the probability of the unknown outcomes have been assessed, it is possible to calculate the values needed to make the best decision. The benefit of each solution is its probability multiplied by its worth. When the benefit of each solution is calculated, the decision with the greatest benefit is selected. Creating and using decision trees have many advantages when trying to make an important decision. Though it takes time to calculate the outcomes and probabilities, it is often time well spent. Decision trees allow managers to view all possible choices. They should be used in conjunction with common sense, identifying all considerations associated with a decision and recognizing that probabilities are usually professional judgments and subject to variation.