Dependency ratios

Dependency ratios are statistics estimating the number of people in various dependent groups per 1,000 workingage adults. Dependency ratios are used by demographers to predict changing relationships and social patterns. The two most common are the youth-dependency and elderlydependency ratios. The youth-dependency ratio in the United States, or the number of children under age 18 per 1,000 adults between the ages of 18 and 64, is expected to decline by 11 percent between 1996 and 2020. This will lead to reductions in demand for public-school education as well as reduced SUPPLY of teenage labor, critical to many retail-business employers. In Indonesia a reduction in the youth-dependency ratio was found to alleviate household budget constraints and boost savings rates in the country. China’s one-childper- family policy significantly reduced the youth-dependency ratio but is contributing to a crisis in the pension system, with fewer workers per pensioner. The elderly-dependency ratio, the number of people over age 65 per 1,000 working-age adults, is expected to increase by 43 percent in the United States between 1996 and 2020. Political debates over SOCIAL SECURITY and Medicare begin with the reality of a declining ratio of contributors to recipients in the system. In the 1990s demographers found an increase in the mortality rate among working-age Russians resulted in an increase in the elderly-dependency ratio, further exacerbating problems with their social WELFARE system.